There's going to be a power surge at Rosenblatt Stadium once again tonight. That's what you get when you put two traditional college power teams, a small stadium, and perfect hitters weather together for a monster series. Last night the two teams combined to hit 7 home runs, and tonight conditions will be even more perfect for hitters to hit the long ball. While Omaha, NE may not set any record temperatures on Tuesday, the old record of 8 home runs hit in a single College World Series game may go down do the heat.
Let's not kid ourselves. Rosenblatt, or Rosenblast stadium as it was known in the 90s, is built for home runs. The stadium sits more than 1100 ft above sea level. Something that cannot be overlooked, in fact Coors Field in Denver, CO is the only MLB stadium at a higher elevation then Rosenbatt Stadium. This is important due to the density of the air, and the drag it creates on a baseball. The higher the elevation the less dense the air is going to be, and the less drag. It seems small but that change in elevation could add more than 5 feet to the total distance traveled of the baseball. That's the part you cannot change, it's always the same year after year and the baseball stadium dimensions should have been adjusted to account for the elevation and the metal bats. It's the weather however, and the current heat wave that has me believing we are going to see an awesome display of power tonight in Omaha.
So what has an affect on how far a baseball travels? We have already talked about elevation. You also must account for wind, humidity, and air temperature. All were near perfect for increasing the flight of the baseball on Monday when 7 HRs were hit. If they were near perfect last night, they're going to be perfect tonight.
Yesterday at game time winds were our of the SE at 9 mph. Like most baseball fields looking out from home plate to center field has you looking to the NE. They do this so that the sun will never be in the batters eyes. Southerly winds of 10 mph though can slow by as much as 0.5 mph the speed of fastballs thrown by the pitcher. Giving hitters more time to focus in, rotate, and drive the ball. Once solid contact is made winds out of the SE could increase the distance of a baseball by more than 12 feet for every 5mph. 4 of last nights home runs were hit to left. And there was also a 2 run triple hit to deep left. Tonight's winds could add up to 25 ft to the distance traveled of ever well hit ball. I do not see tonight's winds affecting the number of well hit balls do to slower pitches. In fact the crosswinds could in fact help pitchers tonight.
Let's not kid ourselves. Rosenblatt, or Rosenblast stadium as it was known in the 90s, is built for home runs. The stadium sits more than 1100 ft above sea level. Something that cannot be overlooked, in fact Coors Field in Denver, CO is the only MLB stadium at a higher elevation then Rosenbatt Stadium. This is important due to the density of the air, and the drag it creates on a baseball. The higher the elevation the less dense the air is going to be, and the less drag. It seems small but that change in elevation could add more than 5 feet to the total distance traveled of the baseball. That's the part you cannot change, it's always the same year after year and the baseball stadium dimensions should have been adjusted to account for the elevation and the metal bats. It's the weather however, and the current heat wave that has me believing we are going to see an awesome display of power tonight in Omaha.
So what has an affect on how far a baseball travels? We have already talked about elevation. You also must account for wind, humidity, and air temperature. All were near perfect for increasing the flight of the baseball on Monday when 7 HRs were hit. If they were near perfect last night, they're going to be perfect tonight.
Yesterday at game time winds were our of the SE at 9 mph. Like most baseball fields looking out from home plate to center field has you looking to the NE. They do this so that the sun will never be in the batters eyes. Southerly winds of 10 mph though can slow by as much as 0.5 mph the speed of fastballs thrown by the pitcher. Giving hitters more time to focus in, rotate, and drive the ball. Once solid contact is made winds out of the SE could increase the distance of a baseball by more than 12 feet for every 5mph. 4 of last nights home runs were hit to left. And there was also a 2 run triple hit to deep left. Tonight's winds could add up to 25 ft to the distance traveled of ever well hit ball. I do not see tonight's winds affecting the number of well hit balls do to slower pitches. In fact the crosswinds could in fact help pitchers tonight.
Usually Omaha averages a high of 86 degrees for this time of the year with their record high for Tuesday of 104 degrees. I like to compare record highs to average temperatures because a large difference means an area with low humidity levels. A place like New Orleans, which is known for its humid conditions, has an average temperature of 90 for Tuesday with a record high just 6 degrees warmer at 96 for Tuesday. Here's the thing though, this week Omaha is not just hot which affects how far the ball travels but they're also humid as well. Temperatures on the field before the game will be miserable with a heat indices of 114-119. A morning talk with a meteorologist for the NWS Omaha confirmed a heat indices of 110 is not uncommon, but the range we are looking at today certainly would be.
Another way to compare just how hot it is going to be is by looking at the cooling degree days number. To get the CDD you add the expected high and low temperatures together and then divide by 2. Finally you subtract this number from 65. If this number is positive you have a CDD. If the number is negative you have a heating degree day. This number does not officially take into account humidity, but the more humid you are the warmer the overnight temperature will be so in a way it does include humidity. I personally wish we used the CDD and HDD numbers more often as I think they are a great way of indicating overall differences in temperatures compared to average as many people often overlook overnight low temps. As it stands energy companies use this number often to predict energy usage. Yesterday Omaha had a CDD of 16. Today the CDD is forecast to be 24! The average CDD for this time of year in Omaha is 9. Last year's CDD was 6.
Now let's take what we just talked about and apply it to tonight's game. It's going to be hot and humid at 6 tonight. While it may seem odd, humid air is actually less dense than dry air. The same goes for warm air. It is less dense than cool air. That is why warm humid air rises and the reason we see rain. It's also the reason a well hit baseball tonight could fly an additional 40 feet further than it would during "normal" years of the College World Series.
Now there is one other thing that could affect the flight of the ball tonight and that is pressure do to a strong ridge being in place over Omaha. This ridge is centered over Northern TX right now and Nebraska is really on the fringe of the ridge. This is the reason we are seeing these hot temperatures right now in Omaha. The ridge will act to add pressure and density to the air, but it does not look like the ridge is going to extend to the surface. It should not be a factor when it comes to flight and distance traveled of baseballs tonight.
So summing it all up, how is the weather going to affect tonight's game? I am seeing a high scoring game with multiple home runs to left. Yesterday we had 4 left field bombs and tonight we could see more than that. Last night the small ball team hit the home runs because of the perfect home run hitting weather. You have to assume tonight the LSU bats get going as well. I see these two teams not just hitting 8 home runs and tying the record, but hitting 10 home runs! Yes it is a lot but when you add a possible 65 feet to each well hit ball you have a lot of harmless fly balls turning into round trippers. LSU hits 6 of the bombs and comes away with a big win and their sixth national baseball championship.
My prediction LSU 12 UT 6
Tonight there is also going to be a chance for rain today and tonight. The playing field in Rosenblatt stadium has the ability to stay playable with even an 8.5 inch per hour rainfall so while any rain delays don't seem likely, we do have a chance of seeing a rain shower or storm moving over the stadium during the game. Also of note the SPC has placed Omaha under a slight chance for severe weather. Activity will all depend on extent of surface ridge, but generally expect some heavy downpours with a couple of scattered afternoon storms.
Tonight there is also going to be a chance for rain today and tonight. The playing field in Rosenblatt stadium has the ability to stay playable with even an 8.5 inch per hour rainfall so while any rain delays don't seem likely, we do have a chance of seeing a rain shower or storm moving over the stadium during the game. Also of note the SPC has placed Omaha under a slight chance for severe weather. Activity will all depend on extent of surface ridge, but generally expect some heavy downpours with a couple of scattered afternoon storms.
Thanks to Weather Almanac for statisitical data.
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