Friday, June 26, 2009

Couple of slow days...but not for too long

Obviously baseball is going on right now and i want to start detailing at the beginning of each series a weather forecast for the three to four days. This could be tough but especially the places that could be impacted by the weather. Also still no need to use the new roof at Wimbledon, but you have to wonder the differences in play that will create. Finally this weekend look for a complete forecast of the Federations cup. Hope to get that to you as soon as tomorrow morning!

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Severe Thunderstorm Cancelled

The severe thunderstorm warning just south of Omaha has now been cancelled. Look for the game to begin as soon as they can clear the field of rain. Here's the problem, there looks like a surface low has developed just west of Omaha near Columbus and this could be the focus for more storms popping up over the next thirty minutes. This is the worst case scenario for LSU who really want to keep Texas on the ropes. If tonight's game gets pushed back a night look for LSU to still be in the drivers seat to win game two, but I would favor Texas in game 3 if they manage to get it there. Mainly due to LSU hitters struggling to hit against the Texas number 1 pitcher. Maybe he doesn't get lucky twice with back to back gems, but does LSU really want to take that chance?

Omaha will continue to see scattered showers throughout the evening hours. Once the sun goes down these storms will decrease in intensity but could still see some storms continue overnight, especially along and around the surface low. They also have several convergence zones that could act as triggers for more overnight convection with dew points in the upper 70s. I still think the game gets played tonight but wonder if another rain delay tonight will impact how long the starters stay in the game. Temperatures have plummeted after the heavy rains moved through. LSU loses the long ball advantage with the weather, but I think they still win the game. Scores for both teams stay under 7. Advantage is a push, but LSU right now is the better team.

Severe Weather Could Change Series...

A line of severe storms is developing just NW of Omaha. At this point expect Omaha to be under a severe thunderstorm warning by the bottom of the 4 o'clock hour. Storms should be through in time for the game but they will have one of two effects. I think the rain will stabilize the atmosphere. This should mean lower rain chances for the actual game. It could also act to destabilize a large capped area meaning more storms likely especially if the line stalls or lifts northward which is not likely. At worse right now the game gets delayed by thirty minutes or so. Rosenblatt Stadium is a technical wonder and as stated in an earlier post large rain amounts should not impact tonights game as long as it ends. It should end, but we are going to have to play the wait and see game. At this point I would be surprised if tonights game gets cancelled, and LSU should pray it doesn't. The last thing LSU wants to do is give last night's starting pitcher for Texas another shot at them. That would be possible if tonight's game was rained out and played on Wednesday....pushing back a possible game three to Thursday.

Weathered College World Series


There's going to be a power surge at Rosenblatt Stadium once again tonight. That's what you get when you put two traditional college power teams, a small stadium, and perfect hitters weather together for a monster series. Last night the two teams combined to hit 7 home runs, and tonight conditions will be even more perfect for hitters to hit the long ball. While Omaha, NE may not set any record temperatures on Tuesday, the old record of 8 home runs hit in a single College World Series game may go down do the heat.

Let's not kid ourselves. Rosenblatt, or Rosenblast stadium as it was known in the 90s, is built for home runs. The stadium sits more than 1100 ft above sea level. Something that cannot be overlooked, in fact Coors Field in Denver, CO is the only MLB stadium at a higher elevation then Rosenbatt Stadium. This is important due to the density of the air, and the drag it creates on a baseball. The higher the elevation the less dense the air is going to be, and the less drag. It seems small but that change in elevation could add more than 5 feet to the total distance traveled of the baseball. That's the part you cannot change, it's always the same year after year and the baseball stadium dimensions should have been adjusted to account for the elevation and the metal bats. It's the weather however, and the current heat wave that has me believing we are going to see an awesome display of power tonight in Omaha.

So what has an affect on how far a baseball travels? We have already talked about elevation. You also must account for wind, humidity, and air temperature. All were near perfect for increasing the flight of the baseball on Monday when 7 HRs were hit. If they were near perfect last night, they're going to be perfect tonight.

Yesterday at game time winds were our of the SE at 9 mph. Like most baseball fields looking out from home plate to center field has you looking to the NE. They do this so that the sun will never be in the batters eyes. Southerly winds of 10 mph though can slow by as much as 0.5 mph the speed of fastballs thrown by the pitcher. Giving hitters more time to focus in, rotate, and drive the ball. Once solid contact is made winds out of the SE could increase the distance of a baseball by more than 12 feet for every 5mph. 4 of last nights home runs were hit to left. And there was also a 2 run triple hit to deep left. Tonight's winds could add up to 25 ft to the distance traveled of ever well hit ball. I do not see tonight's winds affecting the number of well hit balls do to slower pitches. In fact the crosswinds could in fact help pitchers tonight.

Usually Omaha averages a high of 86 degrees for this time of the year with their record high for Tuesday of 104 degrees. I like to compare record highs to average temperatures because a large difference means an area with low humidity levels. A place like New Orleans, which is known for its humid conditions, has an average temperature of 90 for Tuesday with a record high just 6 degrees warmer at 96 for Tuesday. Here's the thing though, this week Omaha is not just hot which affects how far the ball travels but they're also humid as well. Temperatures on the field before the game will be miserable with a heat indices of 114-119. A morning talk with a meteorologist for the NWS Omaha confirmed a heat indices of 110 is not uncommon, but the range we are looking at today certainly would be.

Another way to compare just how hot it is going to be is by looking at the cooling degree days number. To get the CDD you add the expected high and low temperatures together and then divide by 2. Finally you subtract this number from 65. If this number is positive you have a CDD. If the number is negative you have a heating degree day. This number does not officially take into account humidity, but the more humid you are the warmer the overnight temperature will be so in a way it does include humidity. I personally wish we used the CDD and HDD numbers more often as I think they are a great way of indicating overall differences in temperatures compared to average as many people often overlook overnight low temps. As it stands energy companies use this number often to predict energy usage. Yesterday Omaha had a CDD of 16. Today the CDD is forecast to be 24! The average CDD for this time of year in Omaha is 9. Last year's CDD was 6.

Now let's take what we just talked about and apply it to tonight's game. It's going to be hot and humid at 6 tonight. While it may seem odd, humid air is actually less dense than dry air. The same goes for warm air. It is less dense than cool air. That is why warm humid air rises and the reason we see rain. It's also the reason a well hit baseball tonight could fly an additional 40 feet further than it would during "normal" years of the College World Series.

Now there is one other thing that could affect the flight of the ball tonight and that is pressure do to a strong ridge being in place over Omaha. This ridge is centered over Northern TX right now and Nebraska is really on the fringe of the ridge. This is the reason we are seeing these hot temperatures right now in Omaha. The ridge will act to add pressure and density to the air, but it does not look like the ridge is going to extend to the surface. It should not be a factor when it comes to flight and distance traveled of baseballs tonight.

So summing it all up, how is the weather going to affect tonight's game? I am seeing a high scoring game with multiple home runs to left. Yesterday we had 4 left field bombs and tonight we could see more than that. Last night the small ball team hit the home runs because of the perfect home run hitting weather. You have to assume tonight the LSU bats get going as well. I see these two teams not just hitting 8 home runs and tying the record, but hitting 10 home runs! Yes it is a lot but when you add a possible 65 feet to each well hit ball you have a lot of harmless fly balls turning into round trippers. LSU hits 6 of the bombs and comes away with a big win and their sixth national baseball championship.
My prediction LSU 12 UT 6

Tonight there is also going to be a chance for rain today and tonight. The playing field in Rosenblatt stadium has the ability to stay playable with even an 8.5 inch per hour rainfall so while any rain delays don't seem likely, we do have a chance of seeing a rain shower or storm moving over the stadium during the game. Also of note the SPC has placed Omaha under a slight chance for severe weather. Activity will all depend on extent of surface ridge, but generally expect some heavy downpours with a couple of scattered afternoon storms.
Thanks to Weather Almanac for statisitical data.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Not Likely to See New Roof in Action

Wimbledon Centre Court has a retractable roof for the first time ever this year available for nasty weather. Looks like it won't need to be used this week with just isolated rain possible over the next 5 days.


Here's a live look through the Wimbledon web camera. Comfortable weather is expected with high temps close to 80 degrees for the first week. Also here's a link to the current weather.
By the way I love the British. where else do they say sunny intervals?

Strong Storms South of Atlanta

Won't be affected by rain, but long ball will be affected with strong wind gusts blowing in. Also game could be delayed by thunder in area even though storms are well South of stadium. Severe thunderstorm watch for areas South of stadium.

Four MLB games tonight...

Two on the East coast and two on the West coast. No worries with the weather on the west coast. Perfect as usual but we could see some rain delays for the Cards vs Mets tonight even though it is really a long shot for any rain to interrupt the game.

Teams Right at Home With Nebraska Weather



It going to be a hot one in Omaha where the temperatures look to be the only thing hotter than the bats. Winds are blowing out to left field once again so we could see several long home runs deciding the first game tonight. Omaha also has a Heat Advisory in place today and will likely see that continued tomorrow and Wednesday with high temps on Tuesday forecast at 99 degrees. Both Texas and LSU are from the South and have played in brutal weather all year long so I don't see the weather having that much of an impact on the game. There could be a small advantage to LSU do to humidity levels being so high. I also like LSU to win in two games so it may be this bias that has me looking for reasons with the weather to favor them.




Game time temps will be in the 90s at 6 central time. Temps will fall into the upper 80s by the 7th inning stretch and people in the crowd will be rather comfortable from that time on with southeasterly winds at 10 mph. Should be a heck of a game with some deep home runs making for an exciting early game and a blowout by the end of the game. LSU wins tonight with strong pitching performance 11-4.

US Open: Who'll Reign in Title?


As recently as Saturday evening prognosticators were forecasting gloomy conditions for an open inevitably heading into Tuesday of this week. This morning the rains seem like the distant past, and I have a feeling the course will finally play like US Open officials had envisioned and planned for it to play before the rains drenched the course. Remember this is the US Open we are talking about, the toughest course many of these pros will ever play, expect the leaderboard to be as fluid today as the rains that got us to this point.


So who will win? Glover and Barnes won't have a chance with the course playing MUCH tougher today. I think one if not both of these guys will finish out of the top ten as nerves and a tough course get the better of them. You can never count out Tiger, but my money is going to go on the guy that was supposed to challenge Tiger many years ago David Duval. The prodigal son has been found and is back and I think will be holding the US Open trophy at the end of the day. Phil Mickelson? I don't think the love of NY will feel too bad about a fifth second place finish looks possible for Phil.
I will leave you with a link for current radar at Bethpage Black. Overcast but pleasant this morning.


Sunday, June 21, 2009

A Look Ahead...

Just wanted to give a few thoughts on today's weather and how it could effect today's baseball games. Any teams in the NE are looking at rain being possible. Expect delays but I don't think you'll see any rainouts today. Also winds will be blowing out at most stadiums in the Midwest and blowing in at most stadiums in the NE with the upper level low now pulling cooler artic air down to the NE. Down south any games in TX will see severe heat with highs in the 90s and 100s likely for afternoon games.

Bethpage Black vs. Mother Nature

I think it's been clear already this week that golfers competing at the US Open are not just going up against one of the toughest golf courses they will ever play, but are also continuing to battle mother nature as well. Sadly, the last golfer standing after 72 holes will undoubtedly have to answer questions about how the weather played a role in his victory. For golfers who went out early on Thursday the disadvantage was obvious. I still cannot believe some poor saps made it through 11 holes before play was halted. I cannot help them, but my hope for this blog is to help others who perhaps are looking for an advantage concerning which golfers will do well and who will not. I am not just going to cover golf. Hell, besides the four major championships a year plus the unofficial I doubt most weeks I will even mention golf. This week, however, serves to point out exactly why my blog is needed and I hope now that you have found my blog you will come back time and time again to gather detailed information on weather and how it will affect sports.



As for today. It won't be as bad, but it will be cooler and overcast. Play is just now starting on the course.



There is a strong 996Mb surface low now stationed just off the NY coast. The low will continue to move slowly east today. The problem is that this low is directly underneath an upper level low that continues to bring overcast conditions and wrap around precipitation to the area. Lighter rain will be likely throughout the day, compounded by the fact that they have received a rather high amount of rain over the past couple of days. Look for the course to continue to give up low scores as officials balance keeping the course difficult with the possibility a heavy downpour could make the course unfair. Also long shots could pay off well as the weather continues to be such an unknown factor. Heavy rain should stay away from the course but I cannot rule out a stray storm impacting the golf course. All bets are off if that happens as it could turn the leader board upside down in a hurry. Well all bets should have been placed days ago so for now let's just sit back, enjoy today's golf and know in the back of our minds that there will be golf to play on Monday!