Thursday, June 10, 2010

Not Everything Is Set...

Don't take it as gospel the University of Texas and Texas A&M will be joining the PAC-10. Here's what we know. In a perfect world Texas would still be in the Big-12. The Aggies would also like to remain in the Big-12 but their second option, and some say 1-b, would be joining the SEC. Texas has never let known what their opinion is. These two schools are sitting down to make sure they're on the same page. It's these discussions that will decide if the super conference of the last 2 decades remains on top, or if a new contender emerges out West. That's what we know, it's what we don't know that makes this story so interesting.

The SEC keeping quite along with the schools continuing to be mum means nothing is final yet. What has been reported is that the Pac-10 has offered, not who has said they are going. Of course you get the blanket if "a" occurs, in this case a would rerepresent the converence failing, then "we are all moving to such and such conference by a peon wo doesn't have the last word . The last word will come out later this week when Texas announces where they are going. While the 4 other schools are in the hoping business that Texas comes along with them to the Pac-10 I would put money on Texas deciding they are a better fit with the SEC. I put the odds of Texas and Texas A&M joining the SEC as 3-2. 5-2 they join the Pac 10. Don't forget money talks, and for every decision made over the next 48 hours if you follow the money you'll find the reason why the choice was made.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Are You Ready For Mega Conferences?

If you like it or not it is going to happen. There is just too much money out there for it not to happen. Today's revelation the Big Ten is looking to expand is going to reverberate throughout all of college football and teams are lining up to get in on the big pay day.

We know Ohio State, The Florida schools, UCLA will all be included but what we don't know right now is what current mid major will be asked to join the big boys. I think this is what is most interesting at this point as the two finalist seem to be TCU and Boise State. One of these schools will likely be asked to join the Pac 10'ish The other loses out on the big lotto prize. My bet is on Boise getting in. What do you think?

The Inexact Science Of Tracking The Oil

Sunny or cloudy, as a forecaster I have often said this is one of the toughest challenges for us on a daily basis. It would seem so easy. Will there be clouds? How many? Morning fog? I still feel we are right more than we are wrong, but that's due to us learning from the previous day. There are times, like the first weekend in May, where 24 hours ahead it looks one way when the next morning the only thing that is clear is how we busted our cloud forecast.

I say this because I have to assume forecasting 24, 48 and 72 hours out when it comes to the large ever growing oil slick in the gulf has to be a monumental task. Don't get me wrong, I think the federal government and colleges have done an amazing job up until this point of getting out and rolling out the latest in technology. This week the St Petersburg College of Marine Science put together a composite site of 4 ocean current models. The models have been adjusted to forecast possible oil locations up to 48 hours out. This is just one of an ever growing list of tools scientist have at their disposal to locate and eventually fight oil coming ashore. Can we win? Perhaps, but this fight runs far deeper than what we can see at the surface.

Let's talk about just how monumental forecasting oil in the Gulf really is. You're taking a well planted five thousand feet below a fluid surface and are guesstimating exactly where the oil will surface at. So before the winds that we so often are talking about even impact the oil the small particles have traveled about a mile already. The good news is that it does appear that when looking at the big picture the window or area where oil is surfacing is relatively small. Then the oil sloshes around for days. Cooking and changing its density and texture until eventually becoming tar balls which are often found along the leading edge of the oil slick. I will take my job any day to trying to forecast this slick.

So how are scientist forecasting where the oil is going to be? As Plaquemines parish president Billy Nungesser said last weekend "we're throwing the kitchen sink at it." He's right. One could argue the science of locating oil in the gulf and tracking it began May 13, 2006 when NASA's MODIS camera on their Terra Satellite caught an early morning glint out in the Gulf. after scientist researched it they determined the lines you see here are from the natural process of oil seeping out from the ocean floor. since then they have captured and successfully followed the spread of oil visibly from their two satellites containing MODIS cameras across the globe.

While the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) has been the early star with it's crystal clear and high resolution pictures of the spill, it's beginning to take a back seat to fluid and dynamic forecast models. Many colleges have models already in place that only need minor tweaks to at least make them valid. If our worst fears come true, and weeks turn into months when it comes to stopping the oil leak the models will only become better as the small numbers behind the output are refined for better successes in forecasting. Basically, they'll get better as the news could potentially get worse.

The final way we are forecasting and fighting the oil is literally in the water. Boats, hundreds out every day locating, tracking, fighting and reporting on what they are literally seeing. Hovering more than 400 miles above the Earth's poles, every MODIS pixel is equal to 500 meters. That is awesome but it isn't precise enough to locate tar balls, or the smallest slicks. There just is no known substitute for human interaction and how precise an army fighting together can accomplish.

You base your forecast on what you see while using model data to help you see ahead. In time we may rely on models a little more, but for right now there is no substitution for looking at where the oil is and where the currents and winds will take it. It is just like forecasting clouds, sometimes an inexact science. There is some good news though. Unlike rain and storms and like forecasting clouds, oil forecasting is something that small errors on our part are generally overlooked by you the viewer. Here's more good news. Boom operators are putting the boom down and restoring our coastline's natural barrier island protection as we speak. We don't have to be exact. we know it is coming and as precise as we try to be, we know that it will eventually impact nearly all of Louisiana's eastern coastline, the Mississippi coastline and will move into Lake Pontchartrain at some point. Leaders aren't waiting for a forecast they are putting the barriers up right now, using our forecast to determine the areas most at risk.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Just saw pat white hit

I have to say I would hope that the NFL takes a close look at extending the season after what has occured today. Teams resting starters and lopsided games. There are so many reasons an extended season shouldn't occur and they are all occuring today. Please NFL don't extend the season.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

I believe!

Best team in NFL right now.

Two out of three isn't too bad.

Say what you will my deep sleepers have been right on this year. I'm
taking credit for the best game of the year for a certain Washington
qb. I was lucky enough to see meachem in person on Monday night and
the surprising dismantling of the pats. Finally I will give one away
with slaton and the texans. They used my gameplan to a t in the first
half and jumped out to an early lead and then wow. What happened?
The Houston RNA still didn't have a bad day.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

My week 12 deep sleeper picks...

Time's running out so I am going to make these picks quickly for today's games.

Deep Sleeper QB: Jason Campbell--Taking on an aggresive D without his main RB. Will have to get the ball out quick but if he can big plays will be there. Fearless prediction of 2 tds 240 yards. tempted to give Washington the win but I just cannot do it. Phili wins by less than 10 but more than 5.

Deep Sleeper RB: Steve Slaton--Tough call on RBs this week as I think most are slotted about where they will be. Steve Slaton though is generally being ranked about the 20th spot for RBs this week and that is fine, but I think he will put up RB1 type numbers this week. Look for 2 scores from Slaton and 120 total yards. If the game is close he gets these numbers, and I think the game will be close. If the Colts go up big in the first half slaton's numbers are much smaller.

Deep Sleeper WR: Robert Meachem-- Saints taking on the Patriots on Monday night look for Meachem to get a score and about 70 yards. Patriots do a wonderful job of taking away first and most of the time your second option. The Saints have a number of weapons but their want to stretch the field means Meachem gets top billing when it comes to deep sleeper of the Saints this week.