Not Everything Is Set...

Don't take it as gospel the University of Texas and Texas A&M will be joining the PAC-10. Here's what we know. In a perfect world Texas would still be in the Big-12. The Aggies would also like to remain in the Big-12 but their second option, and some say 1-b, would be joining the SEC. Texas has never let known what their opinion is. These two schools are sitting down to make sure they're on the same page. It's these discussions that will decide if the super conference of the last 2 decades remains on top, or if a new contender emerges out West. That's what we know, it's what we don't know that makes this story so interesting.

The SEC keeping quite along with the schools continuing to be mum means nothing is final yet. What has been reported is that the Pac-10 has offered, not who has said they are going. Of course you get the blanket if "a" occurs, in this case a would rerepresent the converence failing, then "we are all moving to such and such conference by a peon wo doesn't have the last word . The last word will come out later this week when Texas announces where they are going. While the 4 other schools are in the hoping business that Texas comes along with them to the Pac-10 I would put money on Texas deciding they are a better fit with the SEC. I put the odds of Texas and Texas A&M joining the SEC as 3-2. 5-2 they join the Pac 10. Don't forget money talks, and for every decision made over the next 48 hours if you follow the money you'll find the reason why the choice was made.

Are You Ready For Mega Conferences?

If you like it or not it is going to happen. There is just too much money out there for it not to happen. Today's revelation the Big Ten is looking to expand is going to reverberate throughout all of college football and teams are lining up to get in on the big pay day.

We know Ohio State, The Florida schools, UCLA will all be included but what we don't know right now is what current mid major will be asked to join the big boys. I think this is what is most interesting at this point as the two finalist seem to be TCU and Boise State. One of these schools will likely be asked to join the Pac 10'ish The other loses out on the big lotto prize. My bet is on Boise getting in. What do you think?

The Inexact Science Of Tracking The Oil

Sunny or cloudy, as a forecaster I have often said this is one of the toughest challenges for us on a daily basis. It would seem so easy. Will there be clouds? How many? Morning fog? I still feel we are right more than we are wrong, but that's due to us learning from the previous day. There are times, like the first weekend in May, where 24 hours ahead it looks one way when the next morning the only thing that is clear is how we busted our cloud forecast.

I say this because I have to assume forecasting 24, 48 and 72 hours out when it comes to the large ever growing oil slick in the gulf has to be a monumental task. Don't get me wrong, I think the federal government and colleges have done an amazing job up until this point of getting out and rolling out the latest in technology. This week the St Petersburg College of Marine Science put together a composite site of 4 ocean current models. The models have been adjusted to forecast possible oil locations up to 48 hours out. This is just one of an ever growing list of tools scientist have at their disposal to locate and eventually fight oil coming ashore. Can we win? Perhaps, but this fight runs far deeper than what we can see at the surface.

Let's talk about just how monumental forecasting oil in the Gulf really is. You're taking a well planted five thousand feet below a fluid surface and are guesstimating exactly where the oil will surface at. So before the winds that we so often are talking about even impact the oil the small particles have traveled about a mile already. The good news is that it does appear that when looking at the big picture the window or area where oil is surfacing is relatively small. Then the oil sloshes around for days. Cooking and changing its density and texture until eventually becoming tar balls which are often found along the leading edge of the oil slick. I will take my job any day to trying to forecast this slick.

So how are scientist forecasting where the oil is going to be? As Plaquemines parish president Billy Nungesser said last weekend "we're throwing the kitchen sink at it." He's right. One could argue the science of locating oil in the gulf and tracking it began May 13, 2006 when NASA's MODIS camera on their Terra Satellite caught an early morning glint out in the Gulf. after scientist researched it they determined the lines you see here are from the natural process of oil seeping out from the ocean floor. since then they have captured and successfully followed the spread of oil visibly from their two satellites containing MODIS cameras across the globe.

While the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) has been the early star with it's crystal clear and high resolution pictures of the spill, it's beginning to take a back seat to fluid and dynamic forecast models. Many colleges have models already in place that only need minor tweaks to at least make them valid. If our worst fears come true, and weeks turn into months when it comes to stopping the oil leak the models will only become better as the small numbers behind the output are refined for better successes in forecasting. Basically, they'll get better as the news could potentially get worse.

The final way we are forecasting and fighting the oil is literally in the water. Boats, hundreds out every day locating, tracking, fighting and reporting on what they are literally seeing. Hovering more than 400 miles above the Earth's poles, every MODIS pixel is equal to 500 meters. That is awesome but it isn't precise enough to locate tar balls, or the smallest slicks. There just is no known substitute for human interaction and how precise an army fighting together can accomplish.

You base your forecast on what you see while using model data to help you see ahead. In time we may rely on models a little more, but for right now there is no substitution for looking at where the oil is and where the currents and winds will take it. It is just like forecasting clouds, sometimes an inexact science. There is some good news though. Unlike rain and storms and like forecasting clouds, oil forecasting is something that small errors on our part are generally overlooked by you the viewer. Here's more good news. Boom operators are putting the boom down and restoring our coastline's natural barrier island protection as we speak. We don't have to be exact. we know it is coming and as precise as we try to be, we know that it will eventually impact nearly all of Louisiana's eastern coastline, the Mississippi coastline and will move into Lake Pontchartrain at some point. Leaders aren't waiting for a forecast they are putting the barriers up right now, using our forecast to determine the areas most at risk.

Just saw pat white hit

I have to say I would hope that the NFL takes a close look at extending the season after what has occured today. Teams resting starters and lopsided games. There are so many reasons an extended season shouldn't occur and they are all occuring today. Please NFL don't extend the season.

I believe!

Best team in NFL right now.

Two out of three isn't too bad.

Say what you will my deep sleepers have been right on this year. I'm
taking credit for the best game of the year for a certain Washington
qb. I was lucky enough to see meachem in person on Monday night and
the surprising dismantling of the pats. Finally I will give one away
with slaton and the texans. They used my gameplan to a t in the first
half and jumped out to an early lead and then wow. What happened?
The Houston RNA still didn't have a bad day.

My week 12 deep sleeper picks...

Time's running out so I am going to make these picks quickly for today's games.

Deep Sleeper QB: Jason Campbell--Taking on an aggresive D without his main RB. Will have to get the ball out quick but if he can big plays will be there. Fearless prediction of 2 tds 240 yards. tempted to give Washington the win but I just cannot do it. Phili wins by less than 10 but more than 5.

Deep Sleeper RB: Steve Slaton--Tough call on RBs this week as I think most are slotted about where they will be. Steve Slaton though is generally being ranked about the 20th spot for RBs this week and that is fine, but I think he will put up RB1 type numbers this week. Look for 2 scores from Slaton and 120 total yards. If the game is close he gets these numbers, and I think the game will be close. If the Colts go up big in the first half slaton's numbers are much smaller.

Deep Sleeper WR: Robert Meachem-- Saints taking on the Patriots on Monday night look for Meachem to get a score and about 70 yards. Patriots do a wonderful job of taking away first and most of the time your second option. The Saints have a number of weapons but their want to stretch the field means Meachem gets top billing when it comes to deep sleeper of the Saints this week.

Time to Give Thanks...And Get Back to Some Weathered Sports....

Glad to see the world's greatest golfer has returned home after an early morning day after thanksgiving crash just outside his home. Let's use this news to remember to give thanks this year to those around us who are special. My little girl is sleeping in the room next to me and I cannot imagine life without her.



I know it isn't Jan 1 and all but I am going to make a resolution right now. To get back to some Weathered Sports. It is something i have to do and something that I think you guys will enjoy and I hope will learn something about as well. Look every morning for a new post on anything from the latest weather system to how it will effect the very sporting events you enjoy every day.



This weekend looks nice weatherwise with the only chance for rain being in San Diego of all places as an upper level lows will be parked just East. Rain chances will be isolated at best there. Overall I don't see weather really being a problem this weekend for any sports as temperatures will be near their seasonal averages. Come back tomorrow for a couple of big fantasy picks. Right now I have no clue who I am going with but I like to go for deep sleepers who will have big games.

Big Week 3 Numbers for Fred Taylor

Let's get right to my picks for this week and also a little more information on my deep sleeper of the week Fred Taylor. Let's start with Fragile Fred....

Just like I said in the previous post I am sick of so called profesionals not taking the actual game into account. For week 3, the NE Patriots are a perfect example of a team needing to focus on the simple things... As a coach, Bill Belicheck knows his team doesn't believe in themselves just yet. He knows his team should really be 0-2. So what would you do if you were him? Would you establish the run that up until this point you didn't feel really needed to be established? Would you make the game shorter in order to keep a better handle on it? Would you like to force the safeties up into the box once again? Yeah that is what he is going to do. Taylor is the best runner NE has and he is going to have a big game. Expect 90 plus yards and a score for Taylor in Week 3. That's advice no other fantasy site is giving right now as most have Taylor ranked in the 40s overall for RBs.

Now let's go and find some other picks that are deep sleepers. Ryan Grant is being ranked generally between 10-15 this week. I think he will be a top 5 back this week. Also Tim Hightower should be listed as a top 15 back instead of top 30 back this week. I do not like Deangelo Williams against the Cowboys as a top five back. He probably won't score this week and they will have to throw late. Passing games that could have a good week include the Panthers. Steve Smith will have a big game. I also will go back to another big running game as having an adverse affect on the passing game with the Patriots having another unspectacular passing performance tomorrow. Moss still gets in the end zone late to put the game away.

I Now Know What this Blog Will Be...

I cannot take it anymore. There is just a slew of bad fantasy football advice out there. How can you expect to win if you are relying on the terrible football advice these guys are giving. I am going to do things a little different though. My rankings and my hot and not list will be based on how the game is expected to play out first and not on random statistics given out due to players averages. RB's on teams expected to win will get large weekly bumps. RB's on teams expected to win big will get an average weekly rank due to them largely getting a quarter or two off. I like to think about it as the theory of fantasy football and I think it is time fantasy owners begin looking at the game

I am going to give a late Friday pick and then I will hopefully give my top 5 studs and duds for this Sunday late on Saturday. Hopefully I can keep this up throughout the rest of the year along with how I think key games impacting fantasy teams will turn out and what that means to your fantasy teams.

This week I am reaching deep and going to give an unlikely hero for Sunday Week 3. Fred Taylor will have a big game for the 1-1 Patriots. Check back tomorrow for a break down of Atlanta vs. New England and why fred Taylor is going to have a big day.

Baseball: A New Age is Beginning

I have to give props to this months espn the magazine. if you haven't picked up a copy you really should, especially if you are a stats geek like me. The magazine has several impressive stats in it including a number of new stats they are using to analyze fantasy statistics in football for the year. very interesting stuff.







Through all the stats that I have seen so far I find the one most impressive is the MLB players over 30 stat output for the past twenty years. It is some interesting stuff and may show a correlation between how steroids has helped older players the most. extending their careers well into their 30s. As the ESPN the Magazine says.....30 just may be the new 40 in baseball.

Now let's talk about steroid use in baseball. No one outside of the game will ever know the true extent of how deep into the fabric of the game steroids had become. If I had to throw out a number I would say more than 70 percent of pro baseball players were juicing. once again this is just a random number I'm throwing out. I think about it like this, if you were a baseball player and you were told you could take something to make you better and keep you in the game longer would you take it? Yeah you may start with products sold down at your local GNC but even stuff sold there is now illegal and not allowed. Where would you cut it off at? Would you stop with creatine? Why not go a little further, especially when the pay-off is so great...

For people not into sports the biggest myth about steroids is the drugs make you stronger. Yes they allow you to have more lean muscle mass but overall steroids work by allowing your muscle to repair and heal faster. They also give you that umph to get going on the rough days. Steroids was custom made for the over 30 baseball player, and now at the end of the steroids era we are also looking at the end of the 30s player being relevant when it comes to playing at your highest level for the longest amount of time possible.

To check my theory I just checked the yahoo fantasy baseball season rankings. Not one of the top 10 guys statistically this year in a standard five by five league are 30 years old yet. If this holds up for any amount of time this is going to completely change the game of baseball. We've already seen a fundamental change in how teams are handling their prospects. I personally think this is great for the game of baseball. Players reaching their peak at 26 and then slowly seeing their stats diminish will take the punch out of teams overpaying free agents. It is also going to make teams think twice before giving up several prospects for a solid 28 year old player. We could be entering into a new age of baseball...

To wrap things up I just want to add while steroids allowed players to keep up their high level of play, the athletes still had to work harder than 99 percent of the people out there. I don't know if taking steroids by itself should keep players out of the Hall of Fame, especially when looking at the fact some of their stats came off of opposing pitchers and hitters who very well were juicing themselves.

UFC is in trouble.

Let me start off my saying I have not drank the hater aid that many sportscasters have been spewing over the past couple of days. This past weekend the UFC held their 100th event and I am not naive, it was huge. It was so huge that many are now predicting ultimate fighting is now bigger than boxing. I will admit the momentum is on the side of ultimate fighting, but let's not kid ourselves this is as good as it is going to get for the caged sport.

So why do I feel mixed martial arts has reached its peak when it comes to popularity. First off it is the cool new kid that is just now showing up to school. Intriguing? yes, but what happens once the intrigue wears thin? What happens when those who are jumping on the sport now because it is something they have never seen before tire? What happens when well reality hits? I will tell you what happens. This niche sport goes back to being what it is. That isn't all bad though. Dana White can still fund his hell of a life as the commissioner of a niche sport. The problem as I see it though, is that what I just pointed out to me is a best case scenario, and if White and others aren't careful they could be looking at a sport that can become much less than my previous predictions.

The problem is that the big guy has now won. Brock Lesner winning did way more damage to me than his post Mir fight mouth ever could have done. Yes the mouth made him and the sport look like something straight out of Vince McMahon's playbook. Lesner winning though made me wonder if the rules of the sport are so open and inclusive that the larger you are, the more of an advantage you're going to have. No one wants to see the biggest guy on the court always win.

Let's compare brawlers and wrestlers in UFC to pure boxers. In boxing weight is maybe the third or fourth most important thing for a fighter to possess. Just at the top of my head I can think about speed, reach, and strength. That isn't even getting into the defense one gains when holding and grabbing are not allowed. That is why boxing is known as the sweet science. It's the thinking man's fight with a paper rock scissors guess of what is being thrown and what to throw often occurring 12 rounds in a row. The UFC? Fights are often times much shorter with the longest fights just lasting 3 rounds. Those shorter matches means larger guys don't have to endure for the long haul, but can make sure to come right after the other fighter pushing the action. Entertaining? Yes, but in the long run I just don't see how it keeps its current popularity.

Historic Week...

It may seem small but just remember this week as the first time Wimbledon's Centre Court roof was used during the tennis major. The historic event occured during the match involving Dinara Safina and Amelie Mauresmo on June 29th.

I don't think the match itself is significant, but if you want to make some cheap money the official first Wimbledon use is to me interesting. You see while the roof was fully closed on June 29th, the first real usage was on June 24th where court officials were asked to move the roof in some 5ft or so to cool the royal VIP section.

To tide you over here are some interesting facts about the roof....

- The roof takes 10 minutes to close. - It is 16 metres above the court surface. - The maximum time before play can start or continue after the roof is closed and the internal environment stabilised is 30 minutes. - 43 miles per hour - the wind speed up to which the roof can be deployed/retracted. - The span of the moving roof trusses is 77 metres. - The weight of each of the 10 trusses is 100 tonnes. - 1,200 extra seats have been installed. - The combined weight of the roof is 3,000 tonnes. - It would take 7,500 Wimbledon umbrellas to cover the same area as the roof. - 290 million tennis balls could fit in Centre Court with the roof closed.

thanks to the UK mirror for that. If you want to know more about the roof you can also check out this article.

US News article on how roof works.

Finally here are my predictions. Venus takes the all time series lead by one over sister Serena. 6-3 6-4. Federer also sets the record for singles major victories with another win over Rodick. 6-4 6-3 6-4

Couple of slow days...but not for too long

Obviously baseball is going on right now and i want to start detailing at the beginning of each series a weather forecast for the three to four days. This could be tough but especially the places that could be impacted by the weather. Also still no need to use the new roof at Wimbledon, but you have to wonder the differences in play that will create. Finally this weekend look for a complete forecast of the Federations cup. Hope to get that to you as soon as tomorrow morning!

Severe Thunderstorm Cancelled

The severe thunderstorm warning just south of Omaha has now been cancelled. Look for the game to begin as soon as they can clear the field of rain. Here's the problem, there looks like a surface low has developed just west of Omaha near Columbus and this could be the focus for more storms popping up over the next thirty minutes. This is the worst case scenario for LSU who really want to keep Texas on the ropes. If tonight's game gets pushed back a night look for LSU to still be in the drivers seat to win game two, but I would favor Texas in game 3 if they manage to get it there. Mainly due to LSU hitters struggling to hit against the Texas number 1 pitcher. Maybe he doesn't get lucky twice with back to back gems, but does LSU really want to take that chance?

Omaha will continue to see scattered showers throughout the evening hours. Once the sun goes down these storms will decrease in intensity but could still see some storms continue overnight, especially along and around the surface low. They also have several convergence zones that could act as triggers for more overnight convection with dew points in the upper 70s. I still think the game gets played tonight but wonder if another rain delay tonight will impact how long the starters stay in the game. Temperatures have plummeted after the heavy rains moved through. LSU loses the long ball advantage with the weather, but I think they still win the game. Scores for both teams stay under 7. Advantage is a push, but LSU right now is the better team.

Severe Weather Could Change Series...

A line of severe storms is developing just NW of Omaha. At this point expect Omaha to be under a severe thunderstorm warning by the bottom of the 4 o'clock hour. Storms should be through in time for the game but they will have one of two effects. I think the rain will stabilize the atmosphere. This should mean lower rain chances for the actual game. It could also act to destabilize a large capped area meaning more storms likely especially if the line stalls or lifts northward which is not likely. At worse right now the game gets delayed by thirty minutes or so. Rosenblatt Stadium is a technical wonder and as stated in an earlier post large rain amounts should not impact tonights game as long as it ends. It should end, but we are going to have to play the wait and see game. At this point I would be surprised if tonights game gets cancelled, and LSU should pray it doesn't. The last thing LSU wants to do is give last night's starting pitcher for Texas another shot at them. That would be possible if tonight's game was rained out and played on Wednesday....pushing back a possible game three to Thursday.

Weathered College World Series

There's going to be a power surge at Rosenblatt Stadium once again tonight. That's what you get when you put two traditional college power teams, a small stadium, and perfect hitters weather together for a monster series. Last night the two teams combined to hit 7 home runs, and tonight conditions will be even more perfect for hitters to hit the long ball. While Omaha, NE may not set any record temperatures on Tuesday, the old record of 8 home runs hit in a single College World Series game may go down do the heat.

Let's not kid ourselves. Rosenblatt, or Rosenblast stadium as it was known in the 90s, is built for home runs. The stadium sits more than 1100 ft above sea level. Something that cannot be overlooked, in fact Coors Field in Denver, CO is the only MLB stadium at a higher elevation then Rosenbatt Stadium. This is important due to the density of the air, and the drag it creates on a baseball. The higher the elevation the less dense the air is going to be, and the less drag. It seems small but that change in elevation could add more than 5 feet to the total distance traveled of the baseball. That's the part you cannot change, it's always the same year after year and the baseball stadium dimensions should have been adjusted to account for the elevation and the metal bats. It's the weather however, and the current heat wave that has me believing we are going to see an awesome display of power tonight in Omaha.

So what has an affect on how far a baseball travels? We have already talked about elevation. You also must account for wind, humidity, and air temperature. All were near perfect for increasing the flight of the baseball on Monday when 7 HRs were hit. If they were near perfect last night, they're going to be perfect tonight.

Yesterday at game time winds were our of the SE at 9 mph. Like most baseball fields looking out from home plate to center field has you looking to the NE. They do this so that the sun will never be in the batters eyes. Southerly winds of 10 mph though can slow by as much as 0.5 mph the speed of fastballs thrown by the pitcher. Giving hitters more time to focus in, rotate, and drive the ball. Once solid contact is made winds out of the SE could increase the distance of a baseball by more than 12 feet for every 5mph. 4 of last nights home runs were hit to left. And there was also a 2 run triple hit to deep left. Tonight's winds could add up to 25 ft to the distance traveled of ever well hit ball. I do not see tonight's winds affecting the number of well hit balls do to slower pitches. In fact the crosswinds could in fact help pitchers tonight.

Usually Omaha averages a high of 86 degrees for this time of the year with their record high for Tuesday of 104 degrees. I like to compare record highs to average temperatures because a large difference means an area with low humidity levels. A place like New Orleans, which is known for its humid conditions, has an average temperature of 90 for Tuesday with a record high just 6 degrees warmer at 96 for Tuesday. Here's the thing though, this week Omaha is not just hot which affects how far the ball travels but they're also humid as well. Temperatures on the field before the game will be miserable with a heat indices of 114-119. A morning talk with a meteorologist for the NWS Omaha confirmed a heat indices of 110 is not uncommon, but the range we are looking at today certainly would be.

Another way to compare just how hot it is going to be is by looking at the cooling degree days number. To get the CDD you add the expected high and low temperatures together and then divide by 2. Finally you subtract this number from 65. If this number is positive you have a CDD. If the number is negative you have a heating degree day. This number does not officially take into account humidity, but the more humid you are the warmer the overnight temperature will be so in a way it does include humidity. I personally wish we used the CDD and HDD numbers more often as I think they are a great way of indicating overall differences in temperatures compared to average as many people often overlook overnight low temps. As it stands energy companies use this number often to predict energy usage. Yesterday Omaha had a CDD of 16. Today the CDD is forecast to be 24! The average CDD for this time of year in Omaha is 9. Last year's CDD was 6.

Now let's take what we just talked about and apply it to tonight's game. It's going to be hot and humid at 6 tonight. While it may seem odd, humid air is actually less dense than dry air. The same goes for warm air. It is less dense than cool air. That is why warm humid air rises and the reason we see rain. It's also the reason a well hit baseball tonight could fly an additional 40 feet further than it would during "normal" years of the College World Series.

Now there is one other thing that could affect the flight of the ball tonight and that is pressure do to a strong ridge being in place over Omaha. This ridge is centered over Northern TX right now and Nebraska is really on the fringe of the ridge. This is the reason we are seeing these hot temperatures right now in Omaha. The ridge will act to add pressure and density to the air, but it does not look like the ridge is going to extend to the surface. It should not be a factor when it comes to flight and distance traveled of baseballs tonight.

So summing it all up, how is the weather going to affect tonight's game? I am seeing a high scoring game with multiple home runs to left. Yesterday we had 4 left field bombs and tonight we could see more than that. Last night the small ball team hit the home runs because of the perfect home run hitting weather. You have to assume tonight the LSU bats get going as well. I see these two teams not just hitting 8 home runs and tying the record, but hitting 10 home runs! Yes it is a lot but when you add a possible 65 feet to each well hit ball you have a lot of harmless fly balls turning into round trippers. LSU hits 6 of the bombs and comes away with a big win and their sixth national baseball championship.

My prediction LSU 12 UT 6

Tonight there is also going to be a chance for rain today and tonight. The playing field in Rosenblatt stadium has the ability to stay playable with even an 8.5 inch per hour rainfall so while any rain delays don't seem likely, we do have a chance of seeing a rain shower or storm moving over the stadium during the game. Also of note the SPC has placed Omaha under a slight chance for severe weather. Activity will all depend on extent of surface ridge, but generally expect some heavy downpours with a couple of scattered afternoon storms.

Thanks to Weather Almanac for statisitical data.

Not Likely to See New Roof in Action

Wimbledon Centre Court has a retractable roof for the first time ever this year available for nasty weather. Looks like it won't need to be used this week with just isolated rain possible over the next 5 days.

Here's a live look through the Wimbledon web camera. Comfortable weather is expected with high temps close to 80 degrees for the first week. Also here's a link to the current weather.

Current Centre Court Weather

By the way I love the British. where else do they say sunny intervals?

Strong Storms South of Atlanta

Won't be affected by rain, but long ball will be affected with strong wind gusts blowing in. Also game could be delayed by thunder in area even though storms are well South of stadium. Severe thunderstorm watch for areas South of stadium.

Four MLB games tonight...

Two on the East coast and two on the West coast. No worries with the weather on the west coast. Perfect as usual but we could see some rain delays for the Cards vs Mets tonight even though it is really a long shot for any rain to interrupt the game.